
Since we are winding down fourth quarter, I thought it is appropriate to talk about the slow real estate recovery that may be coming to an end in certain metro areas including Cumming Ga. We have taken a staggering free fall back to 2001 unit levels but as data is telling us that homes sales are on the rise. With a projection of 80,000 homes being sold in the metro Atlanta Market in 2012. Current inventory says that we only have six months supply to meet that demand.
We have for sure hit the bottom as far as units being sold and are now on the rebound. If current conditions continue to improve with consumer confidence we most likely will hit bottom for declining home prices metro wide in 2012. Currently in most metro areas we have homes priced at 1993 levels. We are already seeing a sellers market in several price points, and expect to see even more price points rebound. This information applies to only select counties and even more select areas inside the counties. Conditions are showing favor for Forsyth, North Fulton, some parts of Gwinnett, Cobb and possibly a rebound for Cherokee Counties.
All foreclosed new construction has been absorbed but with an abundance of lots scattered across the metro area, lot prices have been continuously dropping and may do so for quite some time. There is no doubt that some of your larger banks failed to dump lot inventory back in 2008 and 2009 and will certainly take a larger hit on prices as they prepare to dump those lots in the near future.
Back before the 2008 crises, small builders made up the building market in the Atlanta metro area. Leaving larger builders, building about 15%. With tarnished credit and banks not providing constructions loans, a huge gaping hole has been left in the real estate market with current cash flow builders not being able to keep up with the demand of housing. I first wrote about a possible housing shortage back in June of 2010. At that time only 672,000 homes were being built nationwide, less than half the long term run rate needed to meet the nations natural population growth. This year’s numbers have slipped back to 628,000.
What does this mean? The housing demand is there and as consumer confidence grows, we will most likely see the pendulum swing the opposite way here in Cumming Ga. Pushing housing prices up hopefully at a safe appreciation of 2-4% annually.
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